Craps optimal betting
Since all bets have a house advantage, and a negative expected value, the optimal strategy is not to play. Failing that, one can reduce one's average hourly losses by only placing bets with the smallest house advantage.
The pass/don't line, come/don't line, place 6, place 8, buy 4 and buy 10 (only under the casino rules where commission is charged only on wins) are the bets with the lowest house edge, and all other bets will on average lose money between three and twelve times faster because of the difference in house edges.
An important alternative metric is house advantage per roll (rather than per bet), which may be expressed in loss per hour. The typical pace of rolls varies depending on the number of players, but 102 rolls per hour is a cited rate for a nearly full table. This number then permits calculation of rate of loss per hour, and per the 4 day/5 hour per day gambling trip:
- $10 Pass line bets .42% per roll, $4.28 per hour, $86 per trip
- $10 Place 6,8 bets 1.46% per roll, $14.89 per hour, $298 per trip
- $10 Place 5,9 bets 1.32% per roll, $13.46 per hour, $269 per trip
- $10 Place 4,10 bets 1.19% per roll, $12.14 per hour, $243 per trip
- $1 Single Hardways 2.78% per roll, $2.84 per hour, $56.71 per trip
- $1 All hardways 2.78% per roll, $11.34 per hour, $227 per trip
- $5 All hardways 2.78% per roll, $56.71 per hour, $1134 per trip
- $1 Craps only on come out 3.29% per roll, $3.35 per hour, $67.09 per trip
- $1 Eleven only on come out 3.29% per roll, $3.35 per hour, $67.09 per trip
This runs counter to the notion that hardways and C/E on come-out roll are necessarily bad bets, since, although their house percentages are poor, they have lower minimum bets and happen less frequently. Therefore, they do not lose money as quickly as the pass line bet.
Also, by this metric, other betting patterns are shown to be costly, for example placing $10 on all point numbers, which has a much higher loss of $40.49 per hour or $810 per trip.
